Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming | Bjørn Lomborg

Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming | Bjørn Lomborg | Cool It

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Cool It: The Skept...

	Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming Bjørn Lomborg Knopf, 2007 - 272 pages average customer review:based on 95 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Lomborg - a rational voice of reason

In "Cool It", Bjorn Lomborg has done an excellent job balancing out the strident voices on the issue of global warming. His perspective is not that of an oil industry lapdog challenging the reality of human-induced climate change. Instead, he argues very credibly and insightfully that the effects have been overstated by the alarmists, whose goal has been to dramatize and excite using worst case analyses instead of the mid-range outcomes of the forecasting models. He provides some background and context to the outrageously expensive proposals for curtailing CO2 outputs that will have relatively small effects on climate outcomes but will siphon monumental amounts of the world's economic resources away from other much more cost effective efforts that mankind could make to reduce human suffering. He asks readers to consider the relative costs and benefits of alternative measures before rushing to judgment as to what should be done. His is a very rational and thought-provoking approach to evaluating the issue of global warming and the appropriate public policy responses that we should consider. Highly recommended.

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Cool It

Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming argues that most of the solutions to the problems of global warming are emotional overreactions and are not based on rational scientific facts. Lomborg, a professor of economics at the Copenhagen Business School and named by Time magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in the world, assumes that global warming is real and that it is caused by human activity substantially increasing the Carbon Dioxide content of the atmosphere. He feels that this is beyond debate? However, what he does decry is the hysteria surrounding this issue and suggestions for extravagantly expensive programs to curb CO2 that will only accomplish minimal results. He points out that in a world where billions live in poverty, and millions die of disease each year, these lives can be saved, much of the poverty can be eliminated and the environment can be improved at a fraction of the cost of proposed projects which will have only a minimum effect upon global warming.

Polar Bears have been in the news recently as becoming an endangered species.He points out that of the 20 species of Polar Bears, one or two were declining in number, more than half were stable, and two species were actually increasing. Moreover, from about 5000 in 1960 there are now about 25000. Contrary to what might be expected, the two species that have declined are in colder areas and the two increasing species are in warmer areas. Al Gore's comment on four dead bears omits that they were part of an increasing bear species. He points out that many other species will benefit from global warming. This is just one example of vastly exaggerated emotional claims not supported by data. Furthermore, worry makes us focus on the wrong solutions.

The book argues: 1.Global warming exists and is man-made. 2. Good policy is unlikely to result from hysterically exaggerated emotional statements about imminent catastrophe.3.There are better more efficient solutions for global warming. 4.There are many other issues much more important than global warming.
Indeed, our ultimate ultimate goal should be to improve the quality of life, and that addressing global warming is just a part of that.

In a manner similar to the Polar Bear examination, Lomborg addresses temperature increases, the costs and benefits of climate action,living in a hotter world, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, extreme weather, flooding rivers, water shortages, and numerous similar issues. In each case, he points out the true facts that have been omitted and in many cases alternate solutions to problems that will be more effective at substantially lower cost.
The last chapters are devoted to the politics of global warming and alternate solutions to improving the quality of life for mankind. Pages 167-244 contain copious notes to the chapters and an extensive references to the literature of warming.
Everyone should read this book. It helps dispel the existing climate hysteria, and instead provides a rational approach to mans' attempt to improve the quality of life and the environment.

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Common sense and logic illuminate Global Climate Change with facts

Where you are totally convinced that Global Warming is the most dangerous threat to the planet Earth short of the eventual explosion of the Sun, or you are totally convinced that Global Warming is a plot hatched by the UN you need to read this book for the common sense and logical approach it offers.

What is the likely change to the Earth's climate?

How bad will that climate change be?

What can we do?

How much will it cost?

Is this a financially and morally good use of this money?

Could the money be better spent on other problems?

Can we take some actions that are cost effective to reduce the problems Global Warming will present to the earths climate and populations?

Neither a true believer nor a nut case denier, the author walks use through an understandable analysis of the real risks of not taking specific actions and the rewards from pursuing economically feasible adjustments.

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An incomplete book on a complex issue

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"The arrangement of this book is simple.

1. Global warming is real and man-made.
2. Statements about the strong, ominous, and immediate consequences of global warming are often wildly exaggerated.
3. We need simpler, smarter, and more efficient solutions for global warming rather than excessive if well-intentioned efforts.
4. Many other issues are much more important than global warming."

The above is found at the end of the first chapter of this intriguing book by the skeptical environmentalist himself, Bjorn Lomborg. Lomborg is, according to this book's inside back flap, "adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School." Through my own research, I discovered, amongst other things, that he has a Ph.D. in Political Science. Note also that he is not a statistician but he did give lectures in statistics.

The above four points are those points that this book revolves around. Each chapter expands each point into a discussion. Unlike Lomborg's first book "The Skeptical Environmentalist" (2001) which is quite long and detailed, this book is very short.

Personally, I was surprised that Lomborg admitted that global warming is real since in his first book he seemed to be in denial that there was any significant environmental problem. On top of that, he admits that global warming is man-made.

The real bug-bear with Lomborg is how global warming is being dealt with. He writes:

"Global warming is happening; the consequences are important and mostly negative. It will cause more heat deaths, an increase in sea level, possibly more intense hurricanes, and more flooding. It will give rise to more malaria, starvation, and poverty. It is therefore not surprising that a vast array of environmental organizations, pundits, and world leaders have concluded that we must act to fix global warming."

He goes on:

"The problem with this analysis is that it overlooks a simple but important fact...From polar bears to water scarcity, as [Lomborg shows] , we can do relatively little with climate policies [which are too expensive according to Lomborg`s cost-benefit analysis] and a lot more with social policies [that is, use the money ear-marked for climate policies to fight social problems such as HIV/AIDS, malnutrition, malaria, and drinking water]."

The first question I asked myself is "How can a book about global warming be so short." It's so short because Lomborg is cherry-picking facts to support his thesis. This kind of cherry-picking creates errors. I will mention only five though there are many:

First, Lomborg tells us that the main problem with present-day global warming is that the Earth is heating up. In fact, this is not the main problem!! The problem is the rate of warming. Also, some people mention that the Earth has warmed in the past. This is true but not at such a fast rate that we're seeing now.

Second, Lomborg implies that we don't know what a planet suffering from global warming looks like and therefore we can and should delay doing anything about it (by investing instead in social problems). Actually, there is a planet suffering from global warming--our sister planet, Venus, the second planet from the Sun. Its atmosphere is over 95% carbon dioxide which causes a massive greenhouse effect, raising its surface temperature so that Venus is actually hotter than Mercury (the closest planet to the Sun)!! Thus, if we heat up the Earth, we will suffer the same fate as Venus, making our planet uninhabitable.

So the question is, "Should we delay alleviating global warming only to suffer the fate of Venus." Lomborg seems to think we should.

Third, from Lomborg's cost-benefit analysis, he implies that the rich will be able to survive better during global warming than the poor. However, in his entire analysis, for some reason, he doesn't mention who caused global warming. Answer: the rich countries. Thus, as developing nations like China get richer and want to enjoy the luxuries of a richer country, their greenhouse emissions will increase. If these emissions are not curtailed, then global warming will increase substantially.

Fourth, Lomborg's entire book is about humans and global warming. (To be fair, he does mention polar bears.) He does not delve into species extinction. The fact is some species of animals and vegetation are very sensitive to increases in temperature. (I guess Lomborg failed to look into this because it doesn't fit into his cost-benefit analysis.)

Lastly, and I was surprised by this, Lomborg does not consider the effects of the internal combustion engine on global warming. He does tell us that "traffic deaths are one of the ten leading causes of death in the world" and costs over $500 billion per year but concludes travel is necessary and reducing it would cause us to have a "medieval" world. The fact is the internal combustion engine in the form of the automobile is one of biggest polluters and it contributes significantly to global warming.

Finally, I want to explain my rating for this book. Those who can see the many flaws in Lomborg's book will probably give it one perhaps two stars. Those who are satisfied with this book and cannot see or don't want to see its flaws will probably give it five perhaps four stars. My final rating is an average of these two extremes.

In conclusion, I do agree with Lomborg when he says that, "global warming is real and man-made." I leave you with the words of the late, great astronomer and planetary scientist Dr. Carl Sagan, inspired by a Voyager 1 spacecraft image of the Earth as seen from 3.7 billion miles away:

"Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand."

(first published 2007; preface; 4 chapters; conclusion; main narrative 165 pages; acknowledgements; notes; references; index)

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