Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | An excellent read

books:

Fooled by Randomne...

	Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets Nassim Nicholas Taleb Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2005 - 368 pages average customer review:based on 381 reviews view larger image
	for more information click here

highly recommended

brilliant!

Although I use statistics every day, Taleb's approach makes me think at a deeper level.

An excellent read

This book is worth reading. It will make you think twice about taking on too much risk in any area of life.
Too bad the management of Soc Gen didn't have this book, it could have saved them $7B.

A fun disjointed ride

Fooled by Randomness is both a very interesting book, and a not very well organized one. It is constructed in an almost random (ha!) manner, leaping from one subject to another and never landing on any of its many ideas for very long. The basic concept of the book (and of Taleb's work in general) can be laid out in a single sentence - We underestimate the role of chance in our lives. His explanation for why we underestimate it, and how that under estimation affects our lives is what makes up the majority of the book, and it's a pretty fun (if disjointed) ride.

Taleb made his mark originally as a trader, and that is where many of his examples of the power of randomness come from. He uses finance to explain a survivor bias* and that we post hoc create narratives* to explain our success and failures, when really blind luck probably played a big role in getting us into or out of a given position. If you're involved in a risk prone trade, or just want to read some light, but smart nonfiction, this one is worth picking up.

*Meaning that we think if we want to get rich we should become entrepreneurs, because we only see the successful entrepreneurs, when in reality, if we want the best odds of getting rich, we should become dentists.
** I should have seen the bubble burst in the housing market and limited my position! It is so clear now! Etc, etc. (yes, yes I know everyone knew the housing marker was going to tank, but no one knew, precisely when)

for more information click here