The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World | Alan Greenspan

The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World | Alan Greenspan | Surprisingly Readable

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The Age of Turbule...

	The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World Alan Greenspan Penguin Press HC, The, 2007 - 544 pages average customer review:based on 236 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Read this book.

This book is well worth reading. It is the easiest read for an important nonfiction work that I can ever remember reading. It is difficult to put this book down. The first part of the book is an autobiography/History of Economics In Greenspan's lifetime. The last chapter contains his predictions.

The autobiographical part is well presented and interesting. Mr. Greenspan seems neither especially modest nor especially self-serving. But he doesn't seem to bare his soul, unless he is quite a simple man. Which may be true. He portrays for the reader a man who is a mathematician. A mathematician who diligently works to master Economics with statistics. He doesn't ever seem to really believe that Economics is at its core, a social science and not a hard science.

You should not mistake simplicity for shallowness however, there can be great depth in simplicity. Mr. Greenspan presents complicated ideas in a simple, straightforward way that makes them clear although fairly devoid of emotion or social context. The question one is left with is if he has been so powerful and durable in our country's upper crust because he is the reliable, guileless expert economist or if he is indeed a more subtle, politically aware expert who knows how to present everything in such a neutral manner that no one can object.

One example of this is the so-called surplus that happened at the end of Clinton's term of office. The Federal Government borrowed more money than it needed to balance the budget (from the Social Security trust fund) and named the excess borrowed money a surplus. Purists would argue that borrowing more money than you need, naming it a surplus, and spending it is absurd twisting of words and financially short sighted. Mr.Greenspan holds that the SS trust fund is in reality not a trust fund, that it is just another tax revenue stream for Congress to do with as it will. From the simplest practical viewpoint this is true. Congress has taken the Social Security fund moneys and spent them on whatever occurred to them for decades. From an unemotional, mathematical point of view there is no trust fund because no one treats it as such. For a political realist, words on paper mean nothing when preempted by the reality of unalterable government actions. So is he dispassionately describing the current situation or is Mr.Greenspan the savvy politician, knowing that both the Republicans and Democrats would like to claim they were responsible for the surplus and it would not do to publicly puncture both their balloons? He has stripped away any (politically charged) description of our current process and talks of possibilities for now that are devoid of any history or reason for how we arrived at now. No one in power will be offended or feel the need to defend themselves by his writing. No one will find any insight into avoiding the current financial ills of our country either.

In the last chapter Mr. Greenspan presents his predictions. His knowledge and expertise and style make very good reading again. Mr. Greenspan very neatly identifies the important forces acting on our future. Even if you know nothing of Economics you will be well prepared to understand this chapter after reading his book up to here. He also demonstrates the truism that if you laid all the world's economists end to end, they still would not reach a conclusion. He in fact has no conclusion, merely possibilities. He does mention, but glosses over the greatest weakness in America's economic future in such a way that you may not even notice it. It may be that it is no coincidence that it is a process that is not easily understood using statistics nor one that is correctable without actually identifying the groups that are causing the problem. The first is his only tool, while the second he can't bring himself to do.

This neutrality is really the weakness of this very interesting book and of his closing predictions. The Oracle of Delphi once told Croesus, a powerful king, that if he invaded his neighbor a great empire would be destroyed. She just left out whose empire would be destroyed. Croesus made the obvious error of misinterpretation. Mr. Greenspan's neutrality leaves the reader with no more information then that king whose ambition blinded him to the different interpretations possible for that vague prediction.

In a way the book helps you see the mindset that no one is ever responsible, no decision is ever faulty, there is only the "What are we going to do now?" that weakens the modern American scene. The parties and groups in Government and business vie to be the next great answer to our problems without ever acknowledging their part in their creation.

So readable, so engrossing, don't miss this book.

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Surprisingly Readable

Greenspan's memoir is surprisingly readable, applicable, and enjoyable, even for someone with only an undergrad course in economics. This book is a great way to learn how the Fed works, as well as the motives behind major decisions made by Greenspan and other politicians during his career.
Highly recommended!

Excellent and educational

I am not of the opinion that Greenspan was infallible as the Fed chairman, but his book is very interesting. In particular, the analysis of the many presidents he worked with was fascinating. He also provides a world economics lesson by breaking down the economy of each of the leading economic nations. A great book for people who like history and economics.

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Greenspan's life and reflections

This book is a mixture of autobiography, economic history, and future prognostication. (In the final chapter of the book, the author forecasts what the world economy will look like in 2030---a daunting task even for the likes of Alan Greenspan.)

Alan Greenspan traces the course of his life from his teenage years (he originally wanted to be a jazz musician) to his chairmanship of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. He also covers his years as a private consultant.

What will be of more interest to most readers is Greenspan's extensive experience with so many presidents. (According to the ex-Fed chairman, our two most cerebral presidents of recent decades were Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.)

Greenspan is a libertarian Republican, but he has plenty of criticism for current GOP economic policies. Like many Americans, Greenspan laments the swelling of the deficit under George W. Bush.

A few other points and observations from the book:

Greenspan is an advocate of free trade orthodoxy. Like many in this camp, he glosses over the fact that free trade in the context of China means that American workers compete with Communist prison labor, and state-subsidized enterprises that are not subject to any environmental or workplace safety regulations. His assessment of free trade is textbook Adam Smith/Ricardo theory. (Free trade is beneficial, of course---provided that there is a truly level playing field, which is not the case at present.)

Greenspan says we should pay math teachers more. Since mathematics teachers have more opportunities in the private sector (compared to English literature teacher, for example), schools should pay them higher salaries. This makes sense to me.

Monetary authorities should hold down inflation despite political pressures. Once again, I agree with Greenspan. During economic slowdowns, the Fed is often pressured to pump more cash into the economy through monetary policy. The overuse of this technique is a major factor behind the hyperinflation of economies in the developing world. To support this argument, Greenspan discusses the history of Paul Volcker's inflationary restraints during the Reagan years. Volcker tamed inflation---but it cost us a recession in the early 1980s.

If you have an interest in economics, U.S. history, or Alan Greenspan, then you will enjoy this book. Although I don't agree with every one of his positions, Alan Greenspan is a brilliant man. Almost anyone can learn something from The Age of Turbulence.

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A very worthwhile read

The first half (more or less) is mostly autobiographical and extremely interesting. Greenspan is able to provide the reader with many insights on a plethora of economic events and world leaders. The second half (again, more or less), is Greespan's take on many contemporary economic phenomena. Overall, Age of Turbulence is written clearly and succinctly and is a must read for anyone interested in the world economy.

reviews: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, page 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15

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