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highly recommended |
Siegel Soars! 
I just finished reading this excellent investment book by Jeremy Siegel. Siegel has several themes all of which he adds excitement and color to. Highly recommended. There's so much to like in the book but, I'll focus on one point. One of Siegel's conclusions is that the future of all of our retirements depends on continued improvement in communications.
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The future of the world economy is bright. The communication revolution has set the stage for the entire world to experience robust economic growth This growth will permit us to achieve the global solution, which will enable the aging nations to enjoy a longer and more prosperous retirement
Brilliant and thought provoking
Very well researched and well written book.
A must for all investors.It provides confidence for long term investors.It reinforces the concept of buy and hold. This book will surely stand the test of time.
Excellent Food for Thought
Dr. Siegel's presents a compelling case for investing in the next 50 years from a macro point of view.
Constructive but lacking in rationale for portfolio recommendations 
Good book for those less than entirely familiar with arguments for indexing and "value" investing which undercut all the silly hype about stock picking expertise that fools the masses into paying 1% plus in annual management fees to the mutual fund companies et. al. Most valuable in explaining why some indexing approaches contain significant pitfalls, i.e. the S&P 500 which keeps absorbing the latest high growth stocks that later underperform the market. And why tailoring the indexing approach to focus on higher dividend/lower PE stocks is a winning strategy over time.
Unfortunately, the one chapter the author devotes to specific portfolio recommendations is very inadequate. First of all he rather fails to offer a convincing rationale for a 40% allocation to foreign stocks. He points out that in the last five years they have reached a high degree of correlation with US stocks, so their diversification value is greatly diminished. He ackknowledges the currency risk as well but suggests it will be minimized over time. He also admits that there is no point in chasing high economic growth in foreign markets for the same reason one shouldn't chase growth stocks. Furthermore, he ignores the argument by Vanguard's Bogle that there is really no need to diversify into foreign equities, especially given the broad diversification in the US market and the fact that the US based companies have an ever greater share of sales in foreign markets. Not that investing in foreign equities is a mistake. It just isn't really necessary; the indexes for foreign equities leave something to be desired; there are higher transactions costs; and finally you cannot very well make the high dividend/ low PE play in foreign stocks that you can in US index funds.
Which raises the question a few others have pointed out. Why, after convincing us through over 200 pages to adopt one form or another of his return enhancing strategies, does he then recommend putting 50% of assets into broadly diversified index funds? Why would I want to put so much into a strategy that he just proved markedly underperforms his preferred strategies? Perhaps the reason is that he doesn't really explain how the average investor (or even a relatively knowledgeable investor) can effectively implement those strategies. How does one invest in the lowest quintile PE stocks from the 100 largest S&P 500 companies and keep up with the ever changing composition of that group? I guess we wait until someone develops a mutual fund. Speaking of which, I have the same concern about data mining as some other reviewers. I have read quite a few books advocating various selective strategies based on notions similar to Siegel's. A few of these folks DID start up mutual funds to implement their theories but unfortunately those funds made money primarily for the fund advisers and operators charging 1% plus fees.
My simpler suggestion to take advantage of Siegel's fundamentally correct analysis of the small but ultimately commanding advantages of dividend paying and/or lower PE stocks -- buy index funds with a strong tilt to small cap and value. Check out the performance of Vanguard's Mid Cap Index Fund (VIMSX) and Small Cap Value Fund (VISVX) relative to the S&P over the last five years (or three or one). Even look at thelarge cap value index funds.
Or alternatively, consider setting up your own "index fund" by selecting a group of 20-25 stocks that meet explicit value, dividend-payout, and other criteria and hold so long as they continue to meet all the criteria, adding new stocks as old ones drop out. It doesn't take genius to mine the advantages Siegel describes, just persistence and a determination to ignore all the hype about timing, sector plays, "hot" managers and all the other discredited garbage that passes for investment information in the financial media. The miracle of compounding the small percentage advantages of even modestly undervalued stocks over time is clearly illustrated by Siegel for anyone who pays attention. I just wish he had given a little more thought to real world ways of implementing his insights and had the courage of his convictions for fully allocating to meet them.
reviews: 1, 2, 3, 4, page 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
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based on 42 reviews
