Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Some reviewers didn't read the preface...

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Fooled by Randomne...

	Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets Nassim Nicholas Taleb Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2005 - 368 pages average customer review:based on 380 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

Best ten bucks spent ever

This book is one of a kind. It is a thought-provoking essay that presents the author's philosophical views on randomness, which originates from his long-time experience as a trader and from his vast knowledge of the western philosophical tradition.

I think the book is wonderfully written, although I understand some reviewers' comments about the arrogant style. There is actually some self-sufficiency in Taleb's writing, but I think it actually gives the book a very special ironic and personal touch: you can feel there is an author there, he is not trying to be neutral. I ended up loving it and asking for more. I have also read The Black Swan, but I must say that Fooled by Randomness is the first I read and the one that caused me the greatest impact.

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Some reviewers didn't read the preface...

I think some of the reviewers didn't read the preface. This author states that he wrote the book as though he were having a conversation with the reader. Hence he refers to himself a lot. The rest can be taken as someone telling you a funny story, which might seem biting to some. I think the reviewers that had a lot of ad hominem arguments against the book are the very same people who would talk the same way in conversation. Opinionated people tend to hate other opinionated people.

That being said, I think there is a lot of good information in this book for someone with no exposure to the concepts. Hence there is a lot of explanatory material to get the novice up to speed. Some reviewers called this "fluff." I found it very helpful. I did think there was a lot of digression, which is okay in conversation, but difficult to keep track of over the course of reading the whole book, so I gave it 4 stars.

This book has made me more interested in this topic. Previously I had some frustrations in some business situations, with no way to quantify what was making me edgy about new processes or practices. Now I am more oriented in those situations and can make more informed critiques or decisions. Very helpful. I will get other books by this author, as well as The Halo Effect, based on this gentle introduction to the subject.

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I have a love-hate relationship with this book

Key requirements of a good book are that it challenge what I think I know and that it introduce me to interesting new ideas. So, despite its many faults, I am giving this book three stars. It challenged much of what I learned in finance and statistics, has spurred me to think more carefully, and has given me a number of great suggestions for further reading. The book's faults can be very distracting, however. Mr. Taleb is an ungracious, needlessly petulant writer whose attacks on others seem grounded in unthinking animus rather than substance. Instead of getting absorbed in his exposition (as in a great book, like "Theory of Justice"), I found that Mr. Taleb's sense of superiority frequently distracted me from his arguments. Had he had a stronger-willed editor and replaced his gratuitous ad hominem attacks with more details supporting his main points, this might have been a great book.

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Mediocre, but better than most rubbish out there

Certain parts of the book are enjoyable and a good reminder of how emotions skew rational thinking. Furthermore, the authors explanation of probability versus expectation is also written in a pretty entertaining manner.

Basically, he is saying that majority of traders trade strategies where probability of making small amounts everyday is high and the probability of a catastrophic loss is much smaller ... and that, they eventually blow up. What is insane about this author is that, he implies this in multiple places, he is trading where others blow up (loose money most of the time and make it big on a few occasions). How is this any scientific and rational? given just as those traders cannot foresee that they will blow up, this literally over developed author/trader type cannot tell he will make money because a big event will happen tomorrow and his bet is on the right side. This author probably has option positions out there betting on aliens will invade 20,000 years from now. Too bad, he won't be around to see the outcome.

Another point, he is quite popular right now, in various magazines, articles, people seeking his advice... However, this is also ex-post. If a credit sequeeze hadn't happened in the last year or so, he would not get the same attention he is getting now. I wonder if he is thinking about that sometimes. This reflects his trading style, this is a brief moment in his life, where he hit the jackpot. He will probably ride this as long as he can. I don't think his book will leave serious mark, because he does not even come close to answering any of the fundamental questions he is debating. Also, at places in his book he is discussing technical terms like ergodicity. I don't think he fully understands the meaning but he tries to find some verbal explanation for it based on everyday experiences. Sometimes, mathematical concepts may not have a direct translation in life. They are abstract. He does not discuss "stationarity" at the same level for example, and even if he did readers would have little to gain from his explanation.

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disappointed

After the title and reading a little bit, I was expecting greatness. I never finished it.

reviews: 1, 2, 3, page 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

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