Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy | Matthew R. Simmons | Need a Massive Commitment to Conservation and Nuclear Energy

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Twilight in the De...

	Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy Matthew R. Simmons Wiley, 2006 - 464 pages average customer review:based on 98 reviews view larger image
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highly recommended

What happens when they plug the wells

Coming from an old Texas family (130 yrs), I wanted to understand how an oil field just disappears. This book gives you plenty of that. What follows is a personal example, but offer it in the hope that when you read it, you will be encouraged to buy the book as what this guy writes about happened here.

My grandmother would tell me stories of how her neighbors would drill horizontally into her field. Then they would pump out all the oil and leave her with a mixture of water and oil not worth much. Or the big oil companies would rig what they pay in royalties. There are two big oil cos. I will never get gas from due to her. You can win a lawsuit, but when they read the meter, they make sure you still lose.

After reading this book from cover to cover, I can see she wasn't just dreaming it up. It happens every day in the Middle East and will continue to occur. Total fraud.

You can drive from Wichita Falls down to Tyler, Tx and not see hardly any oil derricks. Hundreds of miles. My childhood was spent watching them drill through the night and seeing the pumps working. They don't do it here anymore. The oil has been depleted. My children will never see what I saw within 160 miles of Dallas.

Our energy position is a very serious problem and needs a real answer. Importing more oil isn't the answer. It won't last any longer than ours did. It is made to burn.

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Need a Massive Commitment to Conservation and Nuclear Energy

Simmons uses his 20-some years' experience in oil industry investment banking plus time spent reviewing hundreds of technical papers to conclude in "Twilight in the Desert" that rosy projections of large remaining oil deposits are likely to be proven wrong. Simmons bases his conclusions on analysis of 200+ technical papers on Saudi production he discovered while there at an energy conference.

Saudi Arabia is key to any such analysis. One reason is that new oil finds have declined and have been far less than amount used for a number of years, another is that it is believed to have the greatest reasons, a third is that most other areas have passed peak production, and a fourth is that oilfield alternatives (eg. shale, oil sands) will be VERY difficult to develop.

The U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration and others believe Saudi oil production will double in the next 15-20 years. However, Simmons believes that Saudi's have inflated their claimed reserves. For example, all the Middle East oil producers tripled the amount of proven reserves they said they had during the 1980s - without finding new oil, and since then have made no adjustments. Further, Simmons is particularly concerned about the fact that they have been pumping salt water into their wells - a technique that accelerates flow from aging wells, but is likely to shorten total economic life.

"There is only a small probability that Saudi Arabia will ever deliver the quantities of petroleum that are assigned to it in all the major forecasts of world oil production and consumption" concludes Simmons. (Dr. Sadad Al-Husseini, former senior executive in charge in Saudi Aramco exploration, also points out the importance of TEMPORARY large increases in Saudi oil production, vs. SUSTAINED increases - much more difficult.) Saudi Arabian production," Simmons adds, "is at or very near its peak sustainable volume . . . and it is likely to go into decline in the very foreseeable future." (In fact, Simmons also says that we already may have passed the Saudi peak.)

How did we get into this mess? Simmons blames a combination of two decades of faulty data, accompanied by poor analyses of that day. Getting out requires a massive commitment to conservation and nuclear energy.

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Well written, well researched

Outstanding book that covers both the subject of oil exploration (for non-experts) and details the challenges that Saudi Arabia faces as they attempt to maintain (never mind increase) their oil production. The book can be a bit dry at times - you need to have a real interest in the subject to get through the multiple chapters analyzing Saudi oil fields. This is a highly recommended book for investors who want to understand the difficulties of the exploration and production segments of the oil industry.

Very good read

The first book I read on oil resource, it is full of technical detail which did take me a couple of reads to fully take in (it says something for a book though when immediately can start back at page one after finishing it!).

For me the best part of the book was his ability to analyse past production information (pre-nationalised Saudi Aramco, e.g. American companies info), current technical difficulties from the large number of SPE papers, and current claims from Saudi Arabia itself as to future performance.

For me it did really ring alarm bells when fields that had previously been tapped, gone through significant depletion with mounting problems today detailed in SPE papers, were then expected to sustain greater then previous 1970 peak production for a long period of years! Certainly thought provoking.

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Twilight in the Desert: Wake up and smell the oil....

The author presented his information in a very simplistic, easy to read format. As he stated in the book it is a complicated subject, but he had to reduce it too a book that would convey the urgency, yet not overwhelm the reader. I believe he did just that. He delivered the information in common language.

I am surprised he did not make a comparison regarding the leaders and accountants of Enron vrs OPEC, this would have set alot of bells off in peoples minds as to what we are dealing with. The comparisons are scary.

I was concerned about his credentials to cover such a topic.
Is this a topic too sell books or to inform....well both is what I concluded but yes he also has the information/background to express his theories.

O.k., now... I liked it, good information, well written... some topics beat to death but this should be a must read for every american.

It is now interesting too hear our president now spouting we are addicted to oil and need to cut back...duh... and how about those closed Congressional meetings between 1974 & 1979,

As he stated in the book, there will always be oil, but a reactionary response too a massive temp world shortage could possibly induce unstability....wars? Who knows? Good questions... can a shortage be good for the world? Yes as he pointed that out several times...

Is there a slurping sound at the bottom of the oil barrel?

READ THE BOOK and you decide.

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